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I may have published a post about this previously. Certainly the information is included in both my General Guide for Animal Parade and my Items and Shipping List Guide. If you are wondering why Rare Ore so seldom is refined into anything other than Scrap Metal or why Blue Wonderfuls more often contain Glass than Sapphires, it is strictly a matter of percentages. The precise percentages for any refined product are included in my Guides but I will copy them here as well:
Scrap Metal
Scrap Metal: 10G
Refined from Junk Ore, Iron Ore, Copper Ore, Silver Ore, Gold Ore and Rare Ore
Official Description: Worthless junk.
Rank: C
Place: Lower Mine, Garmon Mine, Watery Cave
Iron
Iron: 50G
Iron Ore has a 50% chance of becoming Iron when refined.
Official Description: Iron extracted from iron ore. Used ot augment your tools.
Rank: C
Place: Lower Mine, Garmon Mine, Watery Cave
Copper
Copper: 70G
Copper Ore has a 40% chance of becoming Copper when refined.
Official Description: Copper extracted from copper ore. Used to augment your tools.
Rank: C
Place: Lower Mine, Garmon Mine, Watery Cave
Silver
Silver: 100G
Silver Ore has a 30% chance of becoming Silver when refined.
Official Description: Silver extracted from silver ore. Used to augment your tools.
Rank: B
Place: Lower Mine, Garmon Mine, Watery Cave
Gold
Gold: 150G
Gold Ore has a 15% chance of becoming Gold when refined.
Official Description: Gold extracted from gold ore. Used to augment your tools.
Rank: A
Place: Lower Mine, Garmon Mine, Watery Cave
Rare Metal
Rare Metal: 240G
Rare Ore has a 10% chance of becoming Rare Metal when refined.
Refined Gems
Refined Gems are created from Wonderfuls found in the Mines by smashing Rocks and Crystals with a Hammer. Refining any Wonderful costs 35G and the most probable result ALWAYS is Glass. Although both Wonderfuls and Ores can be found by smashing the same selection of Rocks and Crystals in any Mine, there are only two possible results when refining any Ore. When refining any Wonderful, there are either three or four possible results! Although the most probable result always is Glass, for each colour of Wonderful, there is a chance that refining will produce one of two or three different semi-precious or precious Gems. The most valuable of Gems always is the least probable, with a percentage of 5% in terms of chance.
Amber
Amber: 250G
There is a 20% chance of obtaining Amber when any Yellow Wonderful is refined.
Official Description: A gem found in yellow wonderfuls. Used to make accessories.
Rank: B
Place: Lower Mine, Garmon Mine
Amethyst
Amethyst: 420G
There is a 10% chance of obtaining Amethyst when any Purple Wonderful is refined.
Official Description: A gem rarely found in purple wonderfuls. Used to make accessories.
Rank: A
Place: Watery Cave
Aquamarine
Aquamarine: 420G
There is a 15% chance of obtaining an Aquamarine when any Blue Wonderful is refined.
Official Description: A gem found in blue wonderfuls. Used to make accessories.
Rank: B
Place: Watery Cave
Crystal
Crystal: 170G
There is a 20% chance of obtaining Crystal when any White Wonderful is refined.
Official Description: A gem rarely found in white wonderfuls. Used to make accessories.
Rank: B
Place: Garmon Mine
N.B. ‘Garmon Mine’ in this context is the Upper Garmon Mine.
Diamond
Diamond: 1330G
There is a 5% chance of obtaining a Diamond when any White Wonderful is refined.
Emerald
Emerald: 690G
There is a 5% chance of obtaining an Emerald when any Green Wonderful is refined.
Garnet
Garnet: 270G
There is a 20% chance of obtaining a Garnet when any Red Wonderful is refined.
Official Description: A gem found in red wonderfuls. Used to make accessories.
Rank: B
Place: Lower Mine
Glass
Glass: 10G
Refined from any colour of Wonderful
Jade
Jade: 190G
There is a 15% chance of obtaining Jade when any Green Wonderful is refined.
Official Description: A gem found in green wonderfuls. Used to make accessories.
Rank: B
Place: Watery Cave
Lapis Lazuli
Lapis Lazuli: 300G
There is a 20% chance of obtaining Lapis when any Blue Wonderful is refined.
Official Description: A gem found in blue wonderfuls. Used to make accessories.
Rank: B
Place: Watery Cave
Opal
Opal: 330G
There is a 15% chance of obtaining an Opal when any White Wonderful is refined.
Official Description: A gem found in white wonderfuls. Used to make accessories.
Rank: B
Place: Garmon Mine
N.B. ‘Garmon Mine’ refers to the Upper Garmon Mine
Peridot
Peridot: 350G
There is a 20% chance of obtaining Peridot when any Green Wonderful is refined.
Official Description: A gem found in green wonderfuls. Used to make accessories.
Rank: B
Place: Watery Cave
Ruby
Ruby: 830G
There is a 5% chance of obtaining a Ruby when any Red Wonderful is refined.
Official Description: A gem rarely found in red wonderfuls. Used to make accessories.
Rank: A
Place: Lower Mine, Garmon Mine
Sapphire
Sapphire: 620G
There is a 5% chance of obtaining a Sapphire when any Blue Wonderful is refined.
Spinel
Spinel: 220G
There is a 20% chance of obtaining a Spinel when any Purple Wonderful is refined.
Official Description: A gem found in purple wonderfuls. Used to make accessories.
Rank: B
Place: Watery Cave
Topaz
Topaz: 550G
There is a 5% chance of obtaining Topaz when any Yellow Wonderful is refined.
Official Description: A gem rarely found in yellow wonderfuls. Used to make accessories.
Rank: A
Place: Lower Mine, Garmon Mine
Where Wonderfuls are concerned, there are three possible Gems that can be contained in Green, Blue or White Wonderfuls but only two possible Gems in Yellow, Red or Purple, not counting Glass, which is NOT really considered a 'Gem'.
Green Wonderful can be refined to: Glass, Peridot, Jade, Emerald
Blue Wonderful can be refined to: Glass, Lapis Lazuli, Aquamarine, Sapphire
White Wonderful can be refined to: Glass, Opal, Crystal, Diamond
Yellow Wonderful can be refined to: Glass, Amber, Topaz
Red Wonderful can be refined to: Glass, Garnet, Ruby
Purple Wonderful can be refined to: Glass, Spinel, Amethyst
If you study the descriptions given above, you will see that the most uncommon and most valuable gems of all in Animal Parade (as in the real world) are Diamonds, Sapphires, Emeralds and Rubies. Actually, this is not the case in the real world, where Diamonds exist in vast quantities in the earth but multi-national corporations have conspired to control the production strictly to keep the price high. Nonetheless, for the most part, the correspondence between Harvest Moon Gems and Gems in 'our' world are fairly equal. In Animal Parade, the incidence of finding one of the most valuable Gems is no more than 5% when any Wonderful of the corresponding colour is refined.
Like most situations with respect to Mining in Harvest Moon, however, the results ALWAYS are random. This means that, if you are determined, you can obtain the Gem or Metal that you wish. It may involve a lot of reloading but you can make certain that refining any Ore or Wonderful results in the Metal or Gem you seek.
Unfortunately, the Garmon Mines District is one of the few Districts that never becomes instantly accessible. Even with the Secret of the Animal Whistle which can allow you to return home instantly, you still have to arrive there either by foot or regular animal transport. Using the Animal Whistle to go to Harmonica Town and then walking to the Mine Cart in the Church Grounds is an alternative, but it is not much faster.
One of the reasons for persisting in order to obtain a specific gem is in order to complete your Mining List for the Mining Trophy. I have included two screenshots of the Mining Trophy. It is 'furniture' that can be placed in your home.
Another random result is the number of branches that any Tree will contain when chopped down with an Axe. Although any items on the ground such as rocks or boulders will decrease the possible number obviously, even when the ground is clear on all sides, you cannot guarantee a specific number of branches. It is NOT worth the trouble of reloading for this!
The maze in Fugue Forest is random and, if you leave the Forest completely and then return, you will find an entirely different configuration of paths. The clearings always are set in terms of the number of screens through which you pass, but the paths change. The Fugue Mushroom always is found on the same screen, however, even if its precise location on that screen differs from visit to visit. You only can find one Fugue Mushroom per day.
Another random result is the appearance of Bees on your field. Obviously, you must have flowers in bloom in order to attract bees, but if you save your game at 5.50 a.m. or earlier, awaken and leave the house to find that NO bees have appeared, you can reload and try again until Bees do appear. The more flowers that have bloomed recently, the better the chance of attracting bees.
Results that do NOT appear to be random, on the other hand, are the Seeds that the Bird in the Cemetary gives to your character each Thursday. Reloading again and again, my character always obtained the same type of Seeds on any given Thursday, although one does receive a different type each week.
Where the Weather is concerned, it no longer is as easy as it was in older Harvest Moon games to change the future. The Weather is loaded into the game at least a few days in advance, so reloading even two days previously will not change the result.
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